Impeachment seems to be doing more harm than good for democrats as President Trump has seen his approval rating improve over the last few weeks.
On Monday, the polling firm Rasmussen released their Monday report, and it was a big win for the president. Dare I say, it was “YUGE”.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
While this may seem like great news, the truth is most polling outlets don’t have the same statistics. CNN says this is a problem:
Let’s start with where Trump is right now: an approval rating in the low 40s. Since World War II, two presidents have had an approval rating at or below 45% in mid-March of an election year. George H.W. Bush had an approval rating at 39%, while Jimmy Carter’s was at 45% and falling fast. Both of them went on to lose reelection by greater than 5 points.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, there have been five presidents with an approval rating of 55% or above. There was Bill Clinton at 55%, Ronald Reagan at 55%, Richard Nixon at 58%, Dwight Eisenhower at 72% and Lyndon Johnson at 80%. All of these presidents won their elections by nine points or greater.
Finally, we have the group of presidents with approval ratings between between 46% and 54%. This includes Gerald Ford at 47%, Barack Obama at 47%, George W. Bush at 49% and Harry Truman at 51%. All of their elections were decided by less than 5 points.
Ford didn’t win.
graph from fivethiryeight.com
The president’s supporters would be the first to tell you about their lack of concern over the polls. Every polling outlet said Donald Trump had no chance in 2016. Left-wing host Joy Reid even said that these polls are used to influence public perception of a candidate.
Whatever your views of the polls are, it feels nice to see a polling organization share the results of a poll that reflects positively on President Trump.